Olivia Rodrigo is expected to release her third studio album this year — and with a cork board adorned with polaroids and red string I’ve been doing my own mental gymnastics to predict what this new era may deliver. While she has yet to confirm a release date, Rodrigo’s past behavior suggests she is following a common pattern among modern pop artists: SOUR debuted in 2021, GUTS succeeded in 2023, so it seems only logical to anticipate her next project in 2025. Sure, I am extrapolating a pattern out of two, but Rodrigo is nothing if not methodical when it comes to her artistic rollouts. Keep in mind that this is the same orchestrator that easter-egged the release date of “Vampire” in the “Driver's License” visualizer. As of early this year, she officially wrapped the GUTS World Tour and has since moved on to headlining major festivals — right on schedule for a new chapter.
SOUR, a word that encapsulated the melodramatic bitterness of teenage heartbreak, felt like an emotional sucker punch dressed in bubble gum packaging. GUTS carried a sense of raw vulnerability mixed with defiant bravery. These weren’t just titles — they were aesthetics, lenses through which the entire album experience was filtered. That precedent had me wondering what 4-letter word could possibly follow, and recent hints suggest something unprecedented: LUCK.
The clues are hidden in plain sight. Rodrigo’s Instagram has recently featured whimsical ladybug motifs, which are widely associated with good luck charms, and even a tarot-style card reading “Luck.” She even captioned her St. Patrick’s Day post “Luck of the Livie.” These aren’t just random flourishes, she is poking her fan army with a stick and we are all going wild.
Despite all this, LUCK feels underwhelming as an album title. It’s conceptually flat, especially compared to the emotional richness of her past two albums. Good vs. bad luck is hardly a groundbreaking theme — low-hanging fruit that the artist is well beyond entertaining by now. If the idea of luck is part of OR3, it would make more sense as a track name, perhaps even the lead single, rather than the title of the whole project. Her album titles have always carried a bit more edge and tension than this. Even if she is hung up on the force of fate, the jagged word JINX seems like a perfect alternative. Concise and charged, it continues her trend of speech-adjacent words that double as allusions to emotional states.
Rodrigo’s Instagram has been suspiciously filled with crimson outfits and accents, and now her online store is splattered with red-toned merch. For a synesthetic who leans heavily into color symbolism, this cannot be coincidence. Red is passion, danger and rage, suggesting that an emotionally chaotic era is approaching. When paired with the ladybugs and what seems to be a growing fondness for ‘80s vintage aesthetics, it’s possible that the new visual identity of OR3 will be a blend of nostalgia and heat. Hopefully the visual overhaul also extends to the album artwork. While SOUR delivered one of the most instantly iconic covers of the decade — whimsical, emotive, youthful — the GUTS cover felt like a bland step down.
In today’s music industry, the marketing campaign often has more impact than the record itself. SOUR was wildly successful, driven by a perfect storm of viral singles like “Driver’s License,” “Deja Vu,” “Good 4 U,” with a rising fanbase hungry for drama. Although the rest of the album felt uneven, occasionally undercooked and wanting of the lyrical excellence of its hits (I will never forgive the existence of “1 Step forward, 3 Steps Back,”) the cultural impact was undeniable. SOUR’s three Grammy wins cemented Rodrigo as Gen Z’s newest pop idol. Ironically, GUTS was a much stronger album — cohesive and introspective, riskier in sound and scope — but it failed to gain the same recognition. It was a victim of the sophomore slump not in quality, but in attention. Now OR3 has the chance to merge both success and substance. A first single with even a fraction of the power of “Driver’s License” or “Vampire” is likely to debut at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100, particularly if the marketing machine is as finely tuned as before.
Rodrigo is expected to stay rooted in her pop-rock comfort zone, but it would be fantastic to hear even more rock influence than her previous album. Working again with Daniel Nigro who produced for Chappell Roan, Rodrigo seems poised to incorporate elements of ‘80s synth-pop, alt-rock and perhaps even some glam sensibilities. This could add a campy, nostalgic edge to her traditionally angst-driven songwriting. The focus is shifting lyrically as well; as a woman navigating fame, relationships and the confusion of early adulthood, I expect more songs related to growing pains, like her Grammy-nominated bruiser, “Ballad of a Homeschooled Girl.” One of her recent bonus tracks, “So American,” hints at a romantic but perhaps more idealized tone, suggesting that her next project could explore themes of love and longing.
I could very well be forcing things into signs and bleeding voids dry, but one thing is for sure — whatever she calls it, Olivia Rodrigo’s third album will be a defining release in her still-blossoming career. If her track record tells us anything, it’s that she’ll deliver a sound and vision we didn’t even know we needed.
Marc Staiano is a sophomore in the College of Arts and Sciences. He can be reached at mcs382@cornell.edu
