This week brought news that Iran will allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors in to the country to inspect newly revealed nuclear enrichment sites.  There are now two questions before President Obama and the world community.  The first is whether this is a sign of Iran’s willingness to cooperate with the international community or just a cat and mouse game.  The second question is what to do next.

I believe this is something in between cooperation and a cat and mouse game.  There is no evidence of the Iranian regime’s willingness to engage the world.  The regime, and specifically Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, derives power from an anti-Western stance.  The Supreme Leader stated in a September 2009 sermon that, “The Islamic system is proud because it wants to follow the Koran.  Let's not have it become secular, not with…An inside that is in love for western ideals and outside covered with the Koran.”  Despite, or maybe because of, President Obama’s efforts not to get involved in the Iranian elections, the Ayatollah, President Ahmadinejad and many others in power ridiculed the U.S. and western powers for influencing the Iranian election. 

      Regarding Iran’s nuclear program, the decision to allow inspectors in may be nothing more than buying time.  However, it is most likely buying time not only to continue nuclear production, but to ostensibly show that its program has no military intentions.  A nuclear Iran is a threat to the entire Middle East, not just Israel.  The U.S. nuclear umbrella does not currently extend to mid-East nations and so a nuclear armed Iran endangers all surrounding nations.  Iran certainly recognizes this and so its recent capitulation to IAEA demands may be nothing more than an effort to appease its neighbors.

      If this premise is true, then what is the international community to do?  Iran has violated U.N. Security Council resolutions and has blatantly lied to the international community about its nuclear program.  There must be repercussions for these violations, otherwise the force of these resolutions and efforts is nullified.  Those who want to strike Iran militarily are wrong, as Iran poses no serious imminent threat.  A foreign military attack will dramatically increase support for the Iranian regime both in Iran and abroad.  The U.S. and its allies must try to separate the regime and its supporters from Iranian citizens; those who take to the streets in protest of the government’s oppression.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and many U.S. congressmen have proposed refined-gasoline sanctions that would cripple the Iranian economy.  This too is misguided because it does not achieve the objective of isolating the regime.  Rather, current sanctions should remain in place and additional sanctions should be implemented that specifically target regime elements, such as government institutions and the Revolutionary Guard, and symbolize that the Iranian government is not acting in the best interests of its people.  Maybe the most effective measure the U.S. can take is to work with mid-East nations to create a set of guidelines and a forum for handling Iran.  The Western powers and the countries of the Middle East have aligned interests, namely preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.  These joint interests must be exploited so as to isolate Iran.

      The difficulty with the Iranian situation is that the government does not speak for many of the people and so any policy towards Iran must account for this.  Iran’s actions have demonstrated the notion that the Iranian regime is willing to openly cooperate with the global community to be a naïve one.  Military measures or sanctions that directly and dramatically hurt the Iranian people will serve no benefit other than to demonstrate Western might.  Iran can be and should be contained with targeted sanctions and pressure from its neighbors.  We can no longer divide nations in to good guys and bad guys.  Yes, there is evil in the world and the Iranian regime is evil.  This does not, however, mean that the Iranian people are the same and to make this assumption would be a devastating mistake.