Beating a Dead Horse, and by Horse I Mean Economy

October 1, 2008
By Shaun Werbelow

Hoping to read something exhilarating, enchanting, or provocative? Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on how you look at it, I have little to no experience when it comes to sex, drugs, or even rock ‘n’ roll. In searching for a column topic this week, I thought long and hard about which unique, intriguing, and fresh topics I could discuss. However, amongst prelims, the return of stereotypical Ithaca weather, and the statistical elimination of both the Mets and the Yankees, I came up void of creativity. If you are looking for a mystical story or a revealing memoir, I encourage you to pick up a daily horoscope, or simply take a trip to the Ithaca Commons. The focus of this column, then, will be the metaphorical roommate who won’t leave when you and your significant other are clearly vying for some privacy. Yes, I will continue to beat it (no pun intended), the only issue of relative significance these days, the dead horse — the economy, stupid.

As Americans, we have learned some critical information over the past few days:

1) No matter which shade of lipstick, when you kiss a pig it still oinks.

2) Senator McCain does not melt when placed under bright light.

3) Our economy is in much worse shape than anyone predicted or could have imagined.

When I wrote my last column, two weeks ago, I declared that the financial markets were in a state of emergency, and that urgent action was needed. At that time, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 500 points. Currently, to the dismay of many, we find the financial markets even further crippled. As members of the House of Representatives voted down a $700 billion last-minute bailout package, the financial markets collapsed. The Down Jones Industrial Average posted its largest one day loss, 777 points, easily surpassing the loss incurred immediately following the September 11 attacks. The proposed bailout was proclaimed to be our only hope of avoiding an economic catastrophe. As it failed, and brought forward talks of 1929, what can we expect next?

President Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and both Senators McCain and Obama have expressed how desperately the American economy needs the passage of a bailout plan. Why then, did Congress balk, injecting uncertainty into the economy? The quick answer is, well, it’s not all that simple. When first publicized, it was rational to assume that securing bad mortgages and providing banks with liquidity would help stabilize the economy. What was uncertain, however, was for how long. Since the credit crisis began there has been a continual illusion as to how many bad mortgages there really are. No one really knows how many more homes will be foreclosed, how many employees laid off, or how much further the GDP will decline? When politicians and economists alike asked Congress to wave its magic wand and pass a bill that would save our troubled economy, they were dreaming.

If proposed tomorrow, the probability that a bill sending 700,000 more soldiers to Iraq would pass is less than that of the Cornell football team making the Rose Bowl. Not to compare lives to dollars, because they are incomparable, but it’s not such a tragedy that the House voted down the bail-out package. The greed, financial power, and complete absence of oversight and regulation are the tragedies that plagued and rotted the financial markets. Once again, I am beating the dead horse. To call it a mess would be an understatement. What now needs to be answered is how we escape, if possible.

There are a few possibilities moving forward, none of which have any guaranteed outcomes. If I knew with some certainty how the economy would respond, I sure wouldn’t be a writer. The most likely option is to negotiate an alternative bail-out plan. The necessity of securing poisoned mortgages is widely accepted. Other specifics, such as CEO-compensation, corporate responsibility, regulation and oversight, and the possibility of government investment return, are the debated issues. If House Republicans and Democrats can come to a compromise, it is probable for an alternative bail-out to be passed within the next two weeks. So what if Christmas doesn’t come early, which is a staunch possibility, as demonstrated today. First and foremost, numerous banks will fail. 750 to 1,000 banks could fail within the next six months if nothing is done to secure their bad assets. In reaction, the stock market will remain extremely volatile. Day in and day out analysts have predicted a bottom, which has yet to become a reality. The problems that got us into this mess are far more complex than what a simple bail-out could address.

It is a tough time to be a student, parent, worker, retiree, an American. As obese as Americans are, it is tough to swallow crashing markets and a deteriorating economy on a daily basis. Unlike the Iraq war, a change of President is unlikely to bring drastic change and an immediate economic revival. When Senator McCain compared Senator Obama to Paris Hilton, she published a video with an alternative energy policy that actually made sense. We are now looking for all ideas, all solutions, and anyone who wants to be the celebrity of our time. The economy is the million dollar question, and we are out of lifelines. For my next column, I hope to discuss something more interesting, light hearted, and cheerful. But first and foremost, I hope there is still a market to discuss, and paper to print my article on.

Shaun Werbelow is a sophomore in the School of Industrial and Labor Relations. He can be contacted at swerbelow@cornellsun.com. Second Opinion appears alternate Wednesdays.