Op-Ed
Hillary’s Trump Card
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Infomaniacs Anonymous
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If you put a gun to my head, I’d tell you the conventional wisdom is on target.When you go to bed a week from tonight, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will likely be the de facto Democratic nominee and the odds-on favorite to become the 44th president of the United States. But likely is not certain. And in an election season of countless surprises — Mike Huckabee’s rise, Hillary Clinton’s fall, John McCain’s comeback —anything is possible. That’s right, folks: Hillary Clinton is down, but not out.
Her survival strategy is straightforward enough: Win Texas and Ohio on March 4, dominate the 11 remaining contests (particularly Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary) and win a disproportionate share of the still-uncommitted “superdelegates.” A tall task, to be sure, but not inconceivable.
What tactics the Clinton campaign plans to use, however — beyond hoping for an Obama gaffe or scandal — is anybody’s guess. It seems Hillary has already played every card in her deck — the inevitability card, the Billary card, the experience card, the gender card, even the race card. But she has one left in her pantsuit pocket — the dream-ticket card — and now is the time to use it. Starting in tonight’s debate, Hillary Clinton should make abundantly clear that, if nominated, her intention is to make Barack Obama her running mate.
Let’s face it. The only reason most Clinton voters are ordering Hillary as the entrée is that she comes with a side of Bill. So why not make it a meal deal and add desert? Vote Hillary, get Bill and Barack! Call it three-for-the-price-of-one. It’s an offer most Democrats would find hard to turn down. Polls show that Democrats like both of their candidates. They yearn for the peace and prosperity of the ’90s, yet are drawn by the soaring oratory of a candidate promising hope, change and unity. They like Clinton for her resume, Obama for his personality. In their heart of hearts, most wish they could have them both.
Wolf Blitzer raised the possibility in a recent debate, asking the candidates about a potential “dream ticket.” The Democratic audience burst into collective orgasm.
Obama responded first, calling such speculation “premature.” It was his polite way of saying “over my dead body.” For reasons apparent to most observers, Obama doesn’t want or need Hillary — he’d be far better off picking an elder statesman with military and/or foreign-policy experience (i.e. Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Sam Nunn). And even if he did offer her the job, she wouldn’t take it. Hillary would rather bank on her high-flying rival crashing and burning in November, at which point she could say “I told you so” and challenge a 75-year old President McCain (or his vice president) in 2012.
Clinton echoed Obama’s answer to Blitzer’s question, poo-pooing the dream-ticket idea. It was, I believe, a huge missed opportunity. What was clear then — and even more so now — is that Hillary Clinton will not become president unless it’s with Barack Obama as her vice president. At this point, there’s simply no way for her to win a general election after alienating half her party when she already alienates half of America.
Even the most optimistic Clinton comeback scenario entails her pulling something less than kosher — trying to un-disqualify the Florida and Michigan delegations, bribing/blackmailing enough superdelegates to overcome Obama’s insurmountable lead among primary and caucus delegates, even stealing some of those so-called pledged delegates (which, a look at DNC rules shows, aren’t actually pledged). Compensating Obama with the number-two slot on the ticket would be the only way to quell an all-out rebellion by his supporters.
Make no mistake: By no means does Hillary want Obama on her ticket — the Clintons hate anybody who steals their spotlight — but she won’t have a choice. She might as well acknowledge as much up front.
Obama, of course, could and would tell voters that he has no desire to be vice president (which, incidentally, is what every vice president in history has said at one time or another). He could even take a pledge — you know, like his famous 2004 pledge to serve out his full senate term, his now-iffy 2007 pledge to “aggressively pursue” a public-financing pact with the Republican nominee and his utterly unrealistic pledge to have all combat troops out of Iraq within 16 months. In other words, he could make a promise with zero credibility.
I’d bet that most rational Democrats believe that, all things being equal, Obama would make a better president with some vice-presidential seasoning. Now if only Hillary would offer them that choice…
Great Analysis
Ben,
I would have to say that you hit this nail on the head. I do agree that the strongest weapon Hillary still has is the idea that voting for her is still, somehow, voting for Barack. If she can convince the American people that voting for her will not leave them "Barack-less" I think more people will indeed be inclined to vote for Hillary, allow her her time to shine during the Presidency, and convince themselves that Barack will run again on his own as a much stronger candidate.
To be honest, I think Barack may have foresaw this when he stated that he would only run once and that his time for leadsership was now; this sentiment was also echoed by Michelle Obama. While many people viewed these statements as arrogant or self-centered, I think Barack successfully conveyed to his supporters that the time for his presidency is now. Even if he really would run again, he needs to make it clear that a vote for Clinton will prevent Barack from ever seeing the White House. This keeps his supporters mobilized and keeps those on the fence supporting Obama.
I also agree with you that the race is not over. While Barack has a solid lead and Clinton will probably still be behind him in pledged delegates at the time of the convention (she simply will not win by large enough margins in every state to eat up his lead) there is a lot that she can do (albeit underhandedly) to secure the nomination. I think Obama does best when he is down and out, so I would encourage all of his supporters to keep that "underdog mentality." We are are ahead....but this is far from over. The moment we relax, Clinton will be there to exploit that opportunity and we can not allow our optimism to get the best of us!
Yes...Dream Ticket
As in Dream On. She didn't move anyone last night. Didn't do anything and if anything, Obama held her off. The only thing this analysis is on point with is the fact that Obama, right now, doesn't need Clinton.