As you read this, Republicans are getting roughed up at polling stations across America. As you read this, a conservative empire built meticulously over the past 12 years is collapsing under the weight of an unpopular president, a losing war and an ethical cloud.

The question that will be answered tonight as the returns pour in is not if the Republicans have lost seats, but how many and whether it was enough for Democrats to retake both house of Congress.

I say both houses because, barring a terrorist attack or a Divine snowstorm targeting liberal counties, Nancy Pelosi will gain the 15 seats she needs to become Speaker of the House.

Can Democrats also gain the six seats they need to win the Senate? Flip a coin.

Of the 33 Senate seats being decided today, only three or so will actually be decided today. The rest have already broken one way or the other, if they were considered competitive to begin with.

Here’s a look at the 10 most closely watched races:

Connecticut — Ned Lamont and his army of anti-war activists thought they had finished Joe Lieberman in August’s Democratic primary, forcing the man who would be Vice President to run as an independent. But because tonight’s outcome will have no bearing on Senate control — Lieberman plans to caucus with the Democrats — the national party has wisely devoted its resources elsewhere while Lieberman has attracted the lion’s share of independent and Republican support. Advantage: Lieberman

Maryland — While the national media continue to deify Democrats Barack Obama and Harold Ford, Jr. for their cross-racial appeal, they have all but ignored Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, a black Republican, who is mounting an improbable challenge against ten-term congressman Ben Cardin for this blue state’s open seat. If a quarter or more of Maryland’s African-American vote along ethnic lines rather than party lines, Steele will have a mathematical lock on the seat. That remains a big “if.” Advantage: Cardin

Missouri — In what could be the closest contest of the night, one-term incumbent Republican Jim Talent is fending off a challenge from Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill. Michael J. Fox appeared in a recent ad extolling McCaskill’s support for — and criticizing Talent’s opposition to — embryonic stem-cell research. With a Missouri ballot initiative on stem cells also being decided today, Talent’s unpopular position will be salient in voters’ minds. Advantage: McCaskill

Montana — Embattled Republican Conrad Burns, named one of Time Magazine’s “5 worst Senators,” was joined on the campaign trail last week by President Bush, who won the state by 20 points only two years ago. Suffering from his association with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, Mr. Burns is in danger of losing his seat to Montana Senate president and flattop-sporting farm boy Jon Tester. Advantage: Tester

New Jersey — Nobody has been watching this race between Democrat Bob Menendez and Republican Tom Kean, Jr. more closely than Democratic Governor Jon Corzine, who appointed then-Congressman Menendez to fill the Senate seat he vacated when he became governor last November. Recent polls show that Menendez has weathered Kean’s attacks on his ethics, which should let Governor Corzine escape the second-guessing of fellow Democrats. Advantage: Menendez

Ohio — Incumbent Mike DeWine is one of the more moderate Republicans in the Senate; challenger Sherrod Brown is one of the more liberal Democrats in the House. In a normal year in Republican-leaning Ohio, that would mean an easy re-election for DeWine. But with mounting Iraq concerns, local manufacturing job losses and ethical scandals implicating Ohio Republicans, this year is anything but normal. Advantage: Brown

Pennsylvania — There is no Republican senator that Democrats will be happier to bid farewell than archconservative Rick Santorum. To oust him, they have put up Bob Casey, Jr., son of the popular former governor (of Casey vs. Planned Parenthood fame). Casey is pro-life like his father and has straddled the center on a host of other issues. With Santorum far off to the right in a state that voted for Al Gore and John Kerry, Casey is in an enviable position. Advantage: Casey

Rhode Island — If there is such a thing as a “R.I.N.O.” — a Republican In Name Only — it is Senator Lincoln Chafee, who voted against the Iraq War, against both of Bush’s tax cuts and against Bush for president in 2004 (he wrote in a vote for Bush Sr.). The national Republican Party, however, saved him from losing his primary to a self-proclaimed “Reagan Republican” because it knew that a R.I.N.O. was the only type of Republican that could keep the seat — a seat that could decide Senate control. Chafee’s challenger, Sheldon Whitehouse, has made “a Democratic Senate Majority” the centerpiece of his campaign, noting that Chafee’s first vote next term would be for Mitch McConnell (current Republican whip) as majority leader. Advantage: Whitehouse

Tennessee — Give Harold Ford, Jr. credit. The charismatic 36-year-old Democratic congressman knows his audience and has been telling the folks what they want to hear about God, guns, gay marriage and illegal immigration. Matching Republican opponent Bob Corker in social conservatism—and hammering him on Iraq — is the only way Ford could hope to win the seat being vacated by Senate majority leader Bill Frist. For a few weeks, it looked as if Ford might become the first black senator in the South since Reconstruction, but last-minute reservations about his age, his party label, his scandalized political family and, alas, his skin color, have turned the tide against him. Advantage: Corker

Virginia — Republican George Allen’s re-election bid was supposed to be a cakewalk, a warm-up act for his planned 2008 presidential bid. But following a series of embarrassing gaffes (“Macaca”) and revelations (“My mother’s not Jewish!”, “I’ve never used the n-word!”), Allen has lost many moderate conservatives to his challenger, former Republican and military man James Webb. The former Republican governor has sought to neutralize his own missteps by drawing attention to sexually explicit passages in Webb’s war novels and misogynistic statements the former Navy Secretary once made about women in the military. Even if Allen pulls through and gives the White House a shot, it is unlikely that Republican primary voters will buy damaged goods. Advantage: Webb

Ben Birnbaum is a junior in the College of Arts and Sciences. He can be reached at bhb9@cornell.edu. Infomaniacs Anonymous appears Tuesdays.